A recent report from the Northern Policy Institute (NPI) highlights a critical demographic shift in northern Ontario, emphasizing the region's vulnerability. The study reveals that without the recent population surge, many areas in northern Ontario would be experiencing population decline. This surge, primarily attributed to immigration and temporary residency, has been essential in sustaining the region's growth.
The report, titled 'Don’t Stop Now', underscores the importance of maintaining this growth to prevent a potential collapse. It highlights the stark contrast between the north and the rest of Ontario, where the population has stagnated despite the overall population of the province doubling over the last 50 years. The key factor in this disparity is the proximity to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with regions closer to Toronto experiencing more significant growth.
The Near-North region, including Nipissing, Parry Sound, and Muskoka, has seen a nearly 60% population increase over the last 50 years, still lagging behind the provincial average but demonstrating resilience. In contrast, Northwestern Ontario has experienced a modest 10% growth, while the 'Core' North, comprising Timmins, Sudbury, and Sault Ste. Marie, has seen virtually no change in population over half a century.
Charles Cirtwill, NPI President and co-author of the report, emphasizes the role of immigration in shifting from stagnation to growth. He notes that without the growth of the last five years, almost every census district in northern Ontario would have faced population decline, except for those within a four-hour drive of Toronto.
The report credits community-driven initiatives like the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot (RNIP) for much of the recent recovery. These programs have successfully attracted newcomers to regions facing acute labor shortages, away from the overcrowded 'Big Three' cities. However, the report also warns of recent federal policy shifts that have negatively impacted provincial and temporary resident numbers.
The NPI report distinguishes between permanent immigrants and temporary residents, highlighting the unfair treatment of the north due to housing and infrastructure pressures in Southern Ontario. It suggests that international education should be viewed as a high-value 'export product' and proposes specific measures to stabilize and monetize temporary resident numbers, ensuring a steady flow of newcomers to the north.
The report's recommendations for federal and provincial policymakers are clear: Northern Ontario requires a tailored immigration policy that prioritizes growth in permanent immigration while stabilizing temporary resident numbers. Every region in the north should have access to a local, community-driven immigration program that aligns with its labor market needs.
In conclusion, the NPI's briefing note and recent census data reveal that North Bay and its surrounding region are currently experiencing a high-stakes demographic shift. The recent 'population boom' in North Bay, driven by temporary residents and intraprovincial migration, has reversed historical stagnation. However, the report warns that this growth is fragile and dependent on the continued influx of newcomers.
The report highlights a grim reality: without newcomers, North Bay would be shrinking due to a natural decrease in population, with the number of deaths exceeding births. The senior population is projected to grow significantly, increasing the demand for healthcare and long-term care beds. The local economy is also affected by the shift in population age, with a projected decline in the working-age population and a wave of retirements expected in the coming years.
The NPI's core message for North Bay is a call to action. The city's reliance on temporary residents and southern Ontario transplants makes it vulnerable to federal cuts to student visas. The report emphasizes the need to align immigration with the local labor market to fill job vacancies in critical sectors like management, healthcare, and pharmacy.
