I've been to Russia annually since the Ukraine war began, and the atmosphere has shifted significantly. Ukrainian drones have targeted Russian oil facilities, leading to fuel shortages and economic strain. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is optimistic about ending the war from a position of strength, hoping for social unrest and political instability in Russia, which could potentially lead to the collapse of the ruling regime. This isn't unprecedented, as the Soviet Union crumbled amid economic and political crises in 1991. However, the current situation is different. Since 2000, Vladimir Putin has consolidated authoritarian power, weakening democratic institutions and controlling the media. He has also cowed big business and marginalized political opponents. The war has further solidified the influence of the siloviki and the military-industrial sector, all invested in the regime's stability. While fuel shortages and economic strain are evident, the Russian economy remains functional, and the authorities have room to maneuver. Interest rates have been lowered, and the rouble can be devalued to boost energy exports. However, Ukraine's economy is struggling due to Western financial support, and the war is likely to persist as both sides believe they can win. The situation is complex, and the outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the war is not going well for Russia, and it poses a significant challenge to Putin's regime.
